If a median price jumps 10 percent in a month when closed sales nearly halved and unsold listings climbed by almost a quarter, did homes get more expensive?
That happened in North Whidbey in September 2026. It's the clearest example of a pattern that runs across the whole island. Whidbey's submarkets close a few dozen homes a month, and some close fewer. At that volume, the median mostly reflects which homes happened to close that month. The figures that move more slowly, like the number of homes for sale and how long it would take to sell them, say more about how much room a buyer has to negotiate. By those figures, the three parts of Whidbey are heading in different directions this fall.
The September numbers, side by side
The Northwest Multiple Listing Service splits Island County into four map areas. Area 780 is Camano Island, 811 is South Whidbey, 812 is Central Whidbey and 813 is North Whidbey. Here are the three Whidbey areas from the NWMLS September 2026 Island County breakout, with residential and condo sales combined. Listings, sales and medians are compared with September 2025, and months of inventory is shown for September 2026 only.
| September 2026 | North Whidbey (813) | Central Whidbey (812) | South Whidbey (811) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active listings | 166, up from 135 | 61, down from 62 | 134, up from 132 |
| Pending sales | 45, down from 49 | 15, up from 14 | 32, down from 49 |
| Closed sales | 32, down from 57 | 18, up from 12 | 29, down from 37 |
| Median price | $569,750, up 10.63% | $621,500, down 15.73% | $749,000, down 6.38% |
| Months of inventory | 5.19 | 3.39 | 4.62 |
For all of Island County, Camano included, the September 2026 median was $618,000. That's down 3.81% from a year earlier, with 4.60 months of inventory. That single figure blends one submarket where supply is building, one where it's tight, and one where pending sales dropped by a third.
How North Whidbey's median rose while buyers gained ground
Start with the area that looks hottest. North Whidbey's median rose 10.63% in September 2026, but the other figures for the month point the opposite way. Active listings rose 22.96% from a year earlier, closed sales fell 43.86%, and months of inventory reached 5.19, the highest of the three Whidbey areas. More homes are waiting and fewer are closing. That usually doesn't push prices up.
The condo rows show part of what's going on. In September 2025, North Whidbey closed nine condos at a median of $345,000. In September 2026 it closed two, at a median of $253,000. Last year those nine lower-priced sales pulled the area median down, and this year they mostly weren't in the count. Condos don't explain all of it. The residential-only median still rose 9.27% to $577,500, but on 30 sales compared with 48 the year before. When the number of sales falls that far, losing some of the lower-priced sales is enough to lift the median without any home selling for more than it would have a year ago.
The month before shows how much the figure moves. In August 2026, North Whidbey's median was $524,000, down 2.64% from a year earlier, on 35 sales. Over 30 days it rose $45,750. Active listings were up in both months. August had 175 against 139 a year earlier, and September had 166 against 135. The inventory figures moved together, while the medians went in opposite directions.
For an Oak Harbor buyer, the inventory count is the figure to watch. Five months of supply means sellers are competing for a limited number of buyers. That doesn't show up in a median that went up.
Where Oak Harbor's supply is coming from
Supply in North Whidbey is building, and the city's own project list shows more on the way. As of Oak Harbor's development tracker updated September 15, 2026, these projects were moving forward:
- Crosby Villa at 1030 Crosby Ave., four apartment buildings with 62 units, under construction.
- Bayview Vista, a three-story apartment project under construction. The tracker lists 49 units, and the city's planning commission minutes say 48.
- Cedar Hill, a 28-lot plat with homes under construction.
- Preston Heights, a 36-lot single-family subdivision with homes under construction.
- Albert's Corner, 12 townhomes under construction.
Further out, Oak Heights is planned at 219 units, 153 single-family homes and 66 duplex units. Utilities and streets were underway, and a planning commission packet put groundbreaking likely in spring 2027. These projects are at different stages, so the totals aren't finished homes ready to buy. Still, a buyer in Oak Harbor can see more competition for their dollar coming over the next two years.
One large project is on hold. The 192-lot Hillside preliminary planned residential development, on a cleared hillside of more than 20 acres near Safeway and Walmart, belongs to Scott Thompson's Pacific North Group. The city's tracker lists its developer agreements and land-use entitlements as expired. At its September 15 meeting, the City Council spent an hour in executive session on the dispute and took no public action, the Whidbey News-Times reported. City staff say the project can still go ahead if the developer applies for new permits. Until that happens, those lots aren't part of any realistic timeline.
On the demand side, there's no sign of a surge. At Naval Air Station Whidbey Island's State of the Station address in March 2026, Cmdr. Joshua Overn said no new commands, squadrons or platforms were expected for now. He also said the base population was expected to level off over the next five years. Base housing is capped at 35% of the base population, so the other 65% live off base. Of sailors living off base, 83% live in single-family homes, and single-family homes make up 85% of local housing. Overn also described a gap between the housing the Defense Department expects junior sailors to rent and what Whidbey actually has.
"I'm not sure how many studios we have in the community, but the number of studios they think should be available is not actually reality anywhere near the Pacific Northwest."
Those comments date from March, more than six months ago. Their bearing on the market hasn't changed. The base is a steady source of demand, not a growing one, while new construction keeps adding supply.
Central Whidbey turns on a handful of sales
Central Whidbey, the Coupeville area, is the smallest of the three areas, and small numbers make its figures jump the most. In August 2026 it closed 13 homes, its median was $587,000, and months of inventory stood at 5.54. In September it closed 18, the median was $621,500, and months of inventory fell to 3.39, the tightest on the island. Five more closings and fewer listings were enough to take the area from the most supply on Whidbey to the least.
The median and the inventory point in opposite directions here as well. Central Whidbey's median fell 15.73% from a year earlier while its active listings were essentially unchanged at 61, and closed sales were up 50%. That looks like a market where lower-priced homes are selling, not one where values dropped 15%. With only 61 homes for sale, a buyer looking for a specific type of property near Coupeville may find just one or two that fit. This is where a well-priced listing is most likely to draw competing offers, even with a falling median.
Coupeville also has its own ferry link. The Port Townsend–Coupeville route runs the Salish on a crossing of about 35 minutes under the late-fall schedule.
South Whidbey's numbers reflect second-home buyers
South Whidbey has the highest prices on the island and the biggest swings in pending sales. In August 2026, pending sales rose 20.93% from a year earlier, active listings were down 13.07%, and the median was $667,000, down 17.65%. In September, pending sales fell 34.69% to 32, active listings edged up to 134, and the median was $749,000, down 6.38%. In consecutive months the area looked like a buyer rush and then a pullback, both on fewer than 60 transactions.
A September 2026 Whidbey News-Times report helps explain why the south end is less predictable. More than 4,000 Island County homes, about 10% of the county's housing stock, are used only seasonally or occasionally. Emily Neff, assistant director of planning for Island County Planning & Community Development, said vacation homes and short-term rentals take units out of the long-term market, so prices for the homes that remain go up. Those figures are countywide. Even so, demand from buyers who don't need a home on a fixed schedule can show up in one month and disappear the next, and that fits the August-to-September swing in South Whidbey.
The commute matters for year-round buyers. The Mukilteo–Clinton route crosses in about 20 minutes on the Tokitae and Suquamish. On October 5, 2026, Washington State Ferries cut the route to one boat because of a crew shortage, canceling every sailing assigned to the second vessel. That was a one-day alert, not a schedule change. A buyer planning a daily commute should still know that a single canceled sailing can change a workday. The summer Harbor Hopper pilot between Langley and Everett carried about 1,500 passenger trips, but, as the South Whidbey Record reported, officials described it as tourism-focused, with two round trips on most Thursdays and Saturdays. That doesn't make it a commuter option yet.
What this means for an offer this fall
Each submarket calls for a different approach when you write an offer:
- North Whidbey: With 5.19 months of inventory and closed sales down by nearly half in September 2026, buyers have time to compare homes and ask for concessions. Check how long a home has been listed against the 166 active listings before deciding how hard to negotiate.
- Central Whidbey: With 3.39 months of inventory and 61 active listings in September 2026, a home that fits your needs may draw other buyers. Have financing and inspection plans ready before you tour.
- South Whidbey: The swing from August to September 2026 makes recent comparable sales the best guide. Look at what similar homes sold for, not at the area median.
For each, compare a listing's price with comparable sales from the past few months on the same part of the island. A countywide or monthly median shouldn't be the yardstick, since September's $618,000 figure for Island County included Camano, Oak Harbor and Langley in one number.
Island markets reward buyers who read them closely. If you're weighing Oak Harbor, Coupeville and South Whidbey, Connie Sorensen can go through the latest NWMLS numbers with you, area by area, and help you match an offer to the market you're actually buying in. Schedule a personal consultation and bring the listings you're considering.
