Thinking about buying a vacation rental in the San Juans but not sure if the numbers work or the rules will allow it? You are not alone. The islands are beautiful, and the idea of offsetting ownership with guest income is enticing. In this guide, you will learn how seasonality affects demand in ZIP 98245, what to verify about permits and taxes, what it really takes to operate on island time, and how to build a pro forma you can trust. Let’s dive in.
Demand in 98245: What drives bookings
The San Juan Islands are a classic leisure market with a highly seasonal pattern. Most visitor demand clusters between late spring and summer, roughly May through September. Peak months typically run June through August, and holiday weekends can sell out quickly. Shoulder months like May and September still attract visitors who prefer lighter crowds and outdoor activities. Winter tends to be quiet except for specific events or retreats.
Access shapes bookings. Ferry schedules, boat and air services, and weather can influence when guests travel, how long they stay, and how flexible you need to be with check-in. Expect multi-night leisure trips from weekenders and families, with stays often between 2 and 7 nights in peak season. Off-season bookings are shorter and less predictable.
Key metrics to gather before you buy
- Monthly occupancy rates and average daily rate by month, not just annual averages.
- Revenue per available rental night and length-of-stay distribution.
- Comparable listings in 98245: number of active short-term rentals, nightly rates, reviews, amenities, and minimum-stay policies.
- Sales comps for similar properties, time on market, and cap rates for comparable investment homes.
Useful data sources include commercial STR analytics providers, local property managers and experienced hosts, Northwest MLS and local broker reports, the county’s ferry and transit information, and the local tourism office for events and seasonality context. Validate reported occupancy and rates with multiple sources, since discounts or long winter stays can skew the headline numbers.
Rules and permits to confirm first
Before you write an offer, confirm what the county requires for short-term rentals that are not owner-occupied. Rules can change, and community discussions are active in many island markets. Verify the following for your specific parcel:
- Registration or permit program for short-term rentals and whether a permit number must be posted on listings.
- Zoning and land use: whether your zoning allows STRs and if there are special conditions, such as owner-occupancy or an on-site manager.
- Local lodging and sales taxes, business licensing, and how taxes are collected and remitted.
- Health requirements: septic and water capacity, inspections, or occupancy limits tied to system size.
- Noise, parking, and nuisance standards, including quiet hours and complaint procedures.
- HOA or CC&R restrictions that may limit or prohibit STRs.
- Shoreline or critical area rules that could affect use.
- Fire and life-safety requirements like detectors, egress, and extinguishers.
How to verify current rules
- Contact San Juan County Planning or the Permit Center for written confirmation of what applies to your parcel.
- Review applicable sections of the San Juan County Code and any recent ordinances.
- Ask county health officials about septic and water system requirements for higher guest counts.
- Confirm state and local tax obligations with the Washington State Department of Revenue and county tax staff.
- Monitor county meetings for policy updates, since STR policy is often revisited.
Operating on island time
Arrival logistics and check-ins
Ferries and limited service windows mean arrivals can bunch up, run late, or shift with weather. Plan for flexible check-in solutions such as smart locks or lockboxes and clear directions for late arrivals. Build fair but firm policies for weather or ferry disruptions, and communicate them clearly before guests travel.
What guests expect on the islands
Island visitors value reliability and self-sufficiency. Strong internet that supports streaming and remote work, a well-stocked kitchen, clear instructions for emergencies, and practical notes on local services like groceries, medical care, and gas go a long way. Storage for bikes or kayaks, parking clarity, and tips for whale-watching, hiking, and paddling can improve reviews.
Staffing, maintenance, and supplies
Cleaning and maintenance require local partners who can navigate ferries and tight timelines. Expect higher turnover costs per stay because of travel time and supply logistics. Maintenance lead times can be longer than on the mainland, so keep a larger reserve for urgent repairs and stock critical parts. Plan seasonal maintenance for winterizing, storm prep, and salt-air corrosion.
Waste and septic management also matter. Higher guest turnover increases wastewater flows and wear on systems. Schedule proactive inspections and pump-outs, and make sure house rules support system health.
Insurance, safety, and liability
Confirm with your insurer that short-term rental activity is covered. Some policies exclude STR use or require endorsements, and island settings can carry higher premiums. Provide safety kits and clear information about emergency contacts, medical facilities, evacuation routes, and severe weather procedures.
Neighbor and community relations
Quiet hours and parking are common friction points. Set expectations in your house rules, respond quickly to concerns, and provide a local contact who can address issues. Island communities are close-knit, and respectful operations protect both your permit status and your reputation.
Build a pro forma you can trust
A monthly cashflow model is essential for a seasonal market. Use conservative, base case, and optimistic scenarios to see how your numbers behave across peak and shoulder months.
Revenue and taxes to model
- Nightly rate by month with realistic seasonal adjustments.
- Occupancy by month in line with local trends.
- Fees: cleaning, pet, and optional add-ons.
- Taxes: state sales tax rules that apply to STRs, local lodging or transient taxes, and any required business license fees.
Operating and capital costs
- Management: professional STR managers in resort markets often charge 20 to 40 percent for full service, so verify local rates.
- Cleaning and turnover costs per stay, likely higher on the islands.
- Maintenance and repairs, utilities, internet, insurance, septic service, landscaping, and garbage.
- Platform costs and marketing fees.
- Transportation or ferry costs for staff and supplies.
- Furniture, safety gear, seasonal upgrades, and reserves for systems like roof or septic.
Analyze scenarios and thresholds
- Calculate cash-on-cash return, net operating income, cap rate based on comparable properties, and payback period.
- Run sensitivity tests that vary occupancy and ADR by plus or minus 10 to 20 percent.
- Find your break-even occupancy at typical ADR, including debt service.
- Discuss financing with lenders who are familiar with short-term rentals and island properties, since terms can differ.
Stress-test key risks
- Policy risk: new caps, owner-occupancy rules, or moratoria.
- Demand risk: changes in visitor patterns, ferry capacity, or competition.
- Disruption risk: weather or ferry cancellations that trigger refunds.
- Opportunity cost: compare returns to long-term rental, seasonal rental, or personal use.
Decision guide: Is this right for you?
You are a strong candidate if the parcel’s zoning supports short-term rentals with a clear permitting path, your monthly model shows a healthy margin in peak season that carries you through winter, you have reliable local cleaning and maintenance partners, and your break-even occupancy sits below realistic shoulder-season occupancy. A strong reserve for repairs and disruptions is also essential.
If the pro forma only works at optimistic occupancy and rates, if permit rules look uncertain, or if operations depend on you being on-island every week, consider other options. Owner-occupied hosting, co-hosting with a local partner, a long-term rental, or using the home primarily for personal enjoyment with limited rentals may be better fits.
Your next steps in 98245
- Confirm zoning and permitted uses for the specific parcel with county planning or the Permit Center, and request written confirmation.
- Ask county staff about STR registration, permits, and any recent code changes.
- Verify septic and water capacity, and any inspection requirements tied to guest counts.
- Confirm state and local tax obligations and register as needed.
- Gather market data from STR analytics providers and get at least two estimates from local property managers for realistic revenue and expenses.
- Obtain insurance quotes that specifically cover STR use and confirm lender requirements for vacation rental financing.
- Speak with experienced island hosts or managers to understand cleaning costs, repair timelines, and ferry logistics.
Where we can support your process
We can help you refine your goals, review property features that matter on islands, source sales comps through the MLS, and coordinate the right local experts for inspections and due diligence. If you want a clear, step-by-step path from interest to informed decision, we are here to help.
Ready to talk through a specific property or your plan for 98245? Connect with Connie Sorensen to map out next steps that fit your goals.
FAQs
What is peak season for short-term rentals in the San Juans?
- Most demand runs May through September, with the highest occupancy and rates in June through August and strong holiday weekends.
How do ferries affect vacation rental check-ins and occupancy?
- Ferry schedules, capacity, and weather can delay arrivals or compress check-in windows, so you need flexible access, clear instructions, and fair policies for disruptions.
What permits or registrations might be required by San Juan County?
- Requirements can include STR registration, zoning compliance, occupancy and parking limits, health and safety standards, and tax registration, so confirm details with county staff for your parcel.
How should I budget for management and cleaning on an island STR?
- Full-service STR managers often charge 20 to 40 percent of revenue, and per-turnover cleaning tends to cost more due to logistics, so get local quotes before you buy.
What insurance coverage do I need for a vacation rental in 98245?
- Confirm that your policy allows short-term rental use, add required endorsements, and plan for higher coastal or island rates, plus clear safety measures and guest instructions.
How do I estimate break-even occupancy for a San Juan STR?
- Build a monthly model with realistic ADR and expenses, include debt service, then solve for the minimum occupancy needed to cover costs and test it with sensitivity scenarios.
